
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | vs 67East CarolinaNEUTRAL | W 33–19 | +14.3 | — | ESPNU |
| 2 | Sep 11 | @ 52Miami | L 23–25 | +3.7 | — | ESPNU |
| 3 | Sep 18 | vs Elon FCS | W 44–10 | +5.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 23 | vs 50Marshall | W 31–30 | +2.8 | — | ESPN |
| 5 | Oct 2 | @ 69Georgia StateCONF | W 45–16 | +27.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 12 | @ 31LouisianaCONF | L 13–41 | -16.7 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | Oct 20 | vs 28Coastal CarolinaCONF | W 30–27 | +7.3 | — | ESPN2 |
| 9 | Oct 30 | vs 115UL MonroeCONF | W 59–28 | +13.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | Nov 6 | @ 120Arkansas StateCONF | W 48–14 | +17.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 11 | Nov 13 | vs 99South AlabamaCONF | W 31–7 | +16.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 20 | @ 101TroyCONF | W 45–7 | +25.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 13 | Nov 27 | vs 112Georgia SouthernCONF | W 27–3 | +12.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Dec 4 | @ 31Louisiana | L 16–24 | +0.7 | — | ESPN |
| Bowls | Dec 18 | vs 21Western KentuckyNEUTRAL | L 38–59 | -13.4 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 45.7% | 50th | 39.1% | 14th |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7% | 85th | 38.6% | 12th |
| Passing success rate | 48.0% | 20th | 39.4% | 39th |
| Explosive run rate | 13.9% | 75th | 15.3% | 79th |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.3% | 22nd | 10.0% | 52nd |
| Line yards / carry | 3.20 | 54th | 2.48 | 2nd |
| Opportunity rate | 40.0% | 53rd | 31.7% | 6th |
| Stuff rate | 15.2% | 55th | 26.2% | 1st |
| Sack rate | 4.3% | 22nd | 7.9% | 27th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 38.6% | 92nd | 33.5% | 12th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 57.1% | 80th | 50.0% | 20th |
| Havoc rate | 7.7% | 37th | 13.5% | 5th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 34.8 | 24th | 22.1 | 29th |
| Yards / game | 441.3 | 31st | 325.8 | 18th |
| Yards / play | 6.20 | 25th | 4.80 | 18th |
| Pass yards / game | 249.1 | 54th | 190.7 | 34th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.44 | 25th | 6.80 | 34th |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 60th | 55.2% | 7th |
| Rush yards / game | 192.2 | 35th | 119.2 | 19th |
| Yards / carry | 4.75 | 43rd | 3.42 | 16th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 36.2% | 93rd | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.86 | 122nd | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.21 | 12th | 2.69 | 36th |
| Penalty yards / game | 53.1 | 67th | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2021 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2021, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2021 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2021 power rankings →