
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | vs UT Martin FCS | W 59–21 | +7.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 11 | @ 41Army | L 35–38 | +4.2 | — | CBSSN |
| 3 | — | Bye | ||||
| 4 | Sep 25 | vs 103Indiana | L 31–33 | -10.6 | — | CBSSN |
| 5 | Oct 2 | @ 23Michigan State | L 31–48 | -7.2 | — | FS1 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | vs 42UTSACONF | L 46–52 | -3.5 | — | |
| 7 | Oct 16 | @ 95Old DominionCONF | W 43–20 | +20.6 | — | ESPN3 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | @ 128Florida InternationalCONF | W 34–19 | -0.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 30 | vs 114CharlotteCONF | W 45–13 | +14.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | Nov 6 | vs 81Middle TennesseeCONF | W 48–21 | +20.3 | — | |
| 11 | Nov 13 | @ 113RiceCONF | W 42–21 | +13.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 20 | vs 91Florida AtlanticCONF | W 52–17 | +21.3 | — | |
| 13 | Nov 27 | @ 50MarshallCONF | W 53–21 | +33.2 | — | CBSSN |
| 14 | Dec 3 | @ 42UTSA | L 41–49 | -0.9 | — | CBSSN |
| Bowls | Dec 18 | vs 20Appalachian StateNEUTRAL | W 59–38 | +28.7 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 54.0% | 3rd | 45.4% | 89th |
| Rushing success rate | 50.3% | 26th | 46.7% | 88th |
| Passing success rate | 55.4% | 4th | 44.2% | 85th |
| Explosive run rate | 16.1% | 44th | 13.4% | 46th |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.7% | 33rd | 9.2% | 29th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.39 | 24th | 3.21 | 84th |
| Opportunity rate | 42.3% | 35th | 38.3% | 61st |
| Stuff rate | 12.6% | 20th | 13.6% | 100th |
| Sack rate | 2.4% | 1st | 6.7% | 49th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 48.1% | 12th | 45.0% | 104th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 66.2% | 41st | 52.1% | 29th |
| Havoc rate | 8.7% | 68th | 11.3% | 19th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 44.2 | 3rd | 29.4 | 90th |
| Yards / game | 536.2 | 2nd | 422.5 | 97th |
| Yards / play | 7.06 | 3rd | 5.30 | 65th |
| Pass yards / game | 433.7 | 1st | 245.9 | 111th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.71 | 15th | 7.01 | 45th |
| Completion % | 68.9% | 9th | 61.2% | 74th |
| Rush yards / game | 102.5 | 119th | 161.3 | 80th |
| Yards / carry | 4.11 | 75th | 4.03 | 63rd |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 46.5% | 9th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.43 | 73rd | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.21 | 12th | 2.46 | 50th |
| Penalty yards / game | 54.1 | 70th | — | — |
64 players who recorded a stat in 2021 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2021, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2021 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2021 power rankings →