
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | vs Southern Utah FCS | W 45–14 | +4.9 | — | CBSSN |
| 1 | Sep 4 | @ 74USC | L 7–30 | -22.1 | — | PACN |
| 2 | — | Bye | ||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | @ 94Hawai'iCONF | W 17–13 | +1.7 | — | FS1 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | @ 62Western Michigan | L 3–23 | -15.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Oct 2 | vs 124New Mexico State | W 37–31 | -10.5 | — | |
| 6 | Oct 9 | @ 100Colorado StateCONF | L 14–32 | -21.4 | — | FS1 |
| 7 | Oct 15 | vs 47San Diego StateCONF | L 13–19 | -3.9 | — | CBSSN |
| 8 | Oct 21 | @ 111UNLVCONF | W 27–20 | -0.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 9 | Oct 30 | vs 82WyomingCONF | W 27–21 | +1.2 | — | FS2 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | @ 46NevadaCONF | L 24–27 | +3.8 | — | FS2 |
| 11 | Nov 13 | vs 56Utah StateCONF | L 17–48 | -26.2 | — | FS1 |
| 12 | — | Bye | ||||
| 13 | Nov 25 | vs 43Fresno StateCONF | L 9–40 | -24.0 | — | FS1 |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 40.3% | 105th | 43.0% | 60th |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 78th | 43.4% | 54th |
| Passing success rate | 37.0% | 108th | 42.6% | 71st |
| Explosive run rate | 16.8% | 34th | 10.2% | 8th |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.5% | 55th | 8.8% | 22nd |
| Line yards / carry | 2.90 | 105th | 3.15 | 77th |
| Opportunity rate | 37.8% | 80th | 39.0% | 74th |
| Stuff rate | 23.0% | 128th | 12.9% | 107th |
| Sack rate | 5.8% | 57th | 6.7% | 49th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 35.3% | 111th | 41.5% | 75th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 48.5% | 114th | 48.7% | 18th |
| Havoc rate | 9.5% | 89th | 9.0% | 63rd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 20.0 | 118th | 26.5 | 68th |
| Yards / game | 340.2 | 107th | 371.3 | 58th |
| Yards / play | 5.26 | 88th | 4.98 | 33rd |
| Pass yards / game | 219.7 | 77th | 221.8 | 77th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.56 | 107th | 6.94 | 42nd |
| Completion % | 51.5% | 123rd | 62.7% | 92nd |
| Rush yards / game | 120.5 | 110th | 135.2 | 42nd |
| Yards / carry | 4.11 | 76th | 3.53 | 26th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 35.0% | 104th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 2.00 | 127th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.83 | 38th | 2.25 | 61st |
| Penalty yards / game | 65.2 | 112th | — | — |
63 players who recorded a stat in 2021 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2021, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2021 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2021 power rankings →