
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | vs 99Ball State | L 21–31 | -20.0 | — | ESPN3 |
| 2 | Sep 10 | @ 52Air Force | L 14–48 | -22.3 | — | CAMP |
| 3 | Sep 17 | @ 9Wisconsin | L 17–23 | +9.2 | — | BTN |
| 4 | — | Bye | ||||
| 5 | Oct 1 | @ 25Appalachian StateCONF | L 3–17 | -4.3 | — | ESPN3 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | vs 128Texas StateCONF | W 41–21 | -1.7 | — | ESPN3 |
| 7 | Oct 15 | @ 51TroyCONF | L 21–31 | -4.3 | — | ESPN3 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | vs UT Martin FCS | W 31–6 | +1.4 | — | ESPN3 |
| 9 | Oct 29 | @ 100South AlabamaCONF | L 10–13 | -8.0 | — | ESPN3 |
| 10 | Nov 3 | vs 63Arkansas StateCONF | L 16–31 | -17.7 | — | ESPNU |
| 11 | Nov 12 | vs 122Louisiana MonroeCONF | L 23–37 | -29.5 | — | ESPN3 |
| 12 | Nov 19 | vs 82Georgia SouthernCONF | W 30–24 | +0.5 | — | ESPN3 |
| 13 | — | Bye | ||||
| 14 | Dec 3 | @ 87IdahoCONF | L 12–37 | -26.0 | — | ESPN3 |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 36.7% | 122nd | 43.6% | 69th |
| Rushing success rate | 34.9% | 126th | 48.4% | 105th |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 99th | 36.8% | 23rd |
| Explosive run rate | 11.8% | 115th | 12.2% | 22nd |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.0% | 73rd | 9.1% | 23rd |
| Line yards / carry | 2.53 | 123rd | 3.27 | 110th |
| Opportunity rate | 31.6% | 122nd | 38.9% | 56th |
| Stuff rate | 20.4% | 99th | 12.6% | 123rd |
| Sack rate | 3.3% | 12th | 4.7% | 95th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.0% | 79th | 38.6% | 39th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 62.5% | 70th | 58.3% | 38th |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 73rd | 9.0% | 123rd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 20.1 | 123rd | 26.6 | 41st |
| Yards / game | 333.9 | 119th | — | — |
| Yards / play | 5.19 | 93rd | — | — |
| Pass yards / game | 246.3 | 52nd | — | — |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.05 | 74th | — | — |
| Completion % | 55.1% | 98th | — | — |
| Rush yards / game | 87.7 | 126th | — | — |
| Yards / carry | 3.13 | 126th | — | — |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 37.8% | 89th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | — | — | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.42 | 26th | — | — |
| Penalty yards / game | 48.4 | 45th | — | — |
56 players who recorded a stat in 2016 (from box scores)
| # | Player | Pos▲ | Class | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Conner Manning | QB | ||||
| 11 | Aaron Winchester | QB | ||||
| 2 | Jaquez Parks | RB | ||||
| 5 | Tra Barnett | RB | ||||
| 17 | Glenn Smith | RB | ||||
| 23 | Darius Stubbs | RB | ||||
| 25 | Kyler Neal | RB | ||||
| 28 | Demarcus Kirk | RB | ||||
| 1 | Kendrick Dorn | WR | ||||
| 4 | Jawan Nobles | WR | ||||
| 14 | Devin Gentry | WR | ||||
| 15 | Todd Boyd | WR | ||||
| 18 | Penny Hart | WR | ||||
| 19 | Robert Davis | WR | ||||
| 12 | Emiere Scaife | TE | ||||
| 45 | Keith Rucker | TE | ||||
| 88 | Ari Werts | TE | ||||
| 97 | Jalen Lawrence | DL | ||||
| 5 | Mackendy Cheridor | DE | ||||
| 30 | Javonte Lain | DE | ||||
| 32 | Malik Ricks | DE | ||||
| 49 | Shawanye Lawrence | DE | ||||
| 52 | Tevin Jones | DE | ||||
| 55 | Carnell Hopson | DE | ||||
| 55 | Terry Thomas | DE | ||||
| 95 | Marterious Allen | DE | ||||
| 91 | Julien Laurent | NT | ||||
| 99 | Clifford Amazan | NT | ||||
| 4 | Alonzo McGee | LB | ||||
| 11 | Kaleb Ringer | LB | ||||
| 13 | Charlie Patrick | LB | ||||
| 27 | Andrew Everett | LB | ||||
| 33 | James Traylor | LB | ||||
| 34 | Niemus Bryant | LB | ||||
| 38 | Jameel Spencer | LB | ||||
| 39 | Chase Middleton | LB | ||||
| 42 | Trey Payne | LB | ||||
| 44 | Michael Shaw | LB | ||||
| 57 | Justin Otiwu | LB | ||||
| 14 | Cloves Campbell | DB | ||||
| 33 | Ronald Peterkin | DB | ||||
| 7 | Robert Dowling | CB | ||||
| 10 | Chandon Sullivan | CB | ||||
| 16 | Jerome Smith | CB | ||||
| 29 | B.J. Clay | CB | ||||
| 2 | Bobby Baker | S | ||||
| 2 | Joseph Este | S | ||||
| 9 | Cedric Stone | S | ||||
| 20 | Bryan Williams | S | ||||
| 21 | Antreal Allen | S | ||||
| 37 | Trent Hill | S | ||||
| 90 | Rogier Ten Lohuis | PK | ||||
| 93 | Brandon Wright | PK | ||||
| 48 | Oliver Holdenson | P | ||||
| 66 | Seth-Patrick Holman | LS | ||||
| Team | - |
Final ratings for 2016, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2016 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2016 power rankings →