The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | vs 6OklahomaNEUTRAL | W 33–23 | +23.6 | — | ABC |
| 2 | Sep 10 | vs Lamar FCS | W 42–0 | +7.3 | — | ESPN3 |
| 3 | Sep 15 | @ 101CincinnatiCONF | W 40–16 | +18.8 | — | ESPN |
| 4 | Sep 24 | @ 128Texas State | W 64–3 | +20.3 | — | ESPNU |
| 5 | Sep 29 | vs 121ConnecticutCONF | W 42–14 | +10.1 | — | ESPN |
| 6 | Oct 8 | @ 46NavyCONF | L 40–46 | +0.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 7 | Oct 15 | vs 36TulsaCONF | W 38–31 | +10.2 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | @ 94SMUCONF | L 16–38 | -26.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| 9 | Oct 29 | vs 70UCFCONF | W 31–24 | +3.2 | — | ESPNU |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 12 | vs 97TulaneCONF | W 30–18 | +2.6 | — | CBSSN |
| 12 | Nov 17 | vs 12Louisville | W 36–10 | +34.0 | — | ESPN |
| 13 | Nov 25 | @ 44MemphisCONF | L 44–48 | +2.6 | — | ABC |
| Bowls | Dec 17 | vs 31San Diego StateNEUTRAL | L 10–34 | -17.6 | — | ABC |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 45.1% | 41st | 37.5% | 20th |
| Rushing success rate | 43.0% | 91st | 36.0% | 10th |
| Passing success rate | 46.9% | 16th | 38.8% | 40th |
| Explosive run rate | 13.8% | 86th | 14.5% | 53rd |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.7% | 82nd | 10.3% | 65th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.74 | 110th | 2.65 | 19th |
| Opportunity rate | 35.5% | 109th | 32.4% | 14th |
| Stuff rate | 20.8% | 104th | 24.0% | 11th |
| Sack rate | 6.3% | 77th | 7.1% | 29th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 52.4% | 5th | 37.9% | 32nd |
| Red-zone TD rate | 69.0% | 31st | 51.5% | 17th |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 36th | 12.6% | 59th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 46.5 | 1st | 25.4 | 33rd |
| Yards / game | 443.4 | 41st | — | — |
| Yards / play | 5.14 | 97th | — | — |
| Pass yards / game | 296.3 | 17th | — | — |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.37 | 61st | — | — |
| Completion % | 67.3% | 6th | — | — |
| Rush yards / game | 147.1 | 99th | — | — |
| Yards / carry | 3.41 | 117th | — | — |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 46.8% | 16th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | — | — | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.85 | 111th | — | — |
| Penalty yards / game | 42.6 | 19th | — | — |
51 players who recorded a stat in 2016 (from box scores)
| # | Player | Pos▲ | Class | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kyle Postma | QB | ||||
| 2 | Duke Catalon | RB | ||||
| 20 | Kaliq Kokuma | RB | ||||
| 25 | Dillon Birden | RB | ||||
| 28 | Josh Burrell | RB | ||||
| 32 | Kevrin Justice | RB | ||||
| 34 | Mulbah Car | RB | ||||
| 49 | Blake Hirsch | RB | ||||
| 1 | Greg Ward | WR | ||||
| 4 | D'Eriq King | WR | ||||
| 9 | Courtney Lark | WR | ||||
| 15 | Linell Bonner | WR | ||||
| 17 | Terry Mark | WR | ||||
| 18 | Keith Corbin III | WR | ||||
| 21 | Chance Allen | WR | ||||
| 83 | Derek McLemore | WR | ||||
| 87 | Alex Leslie | WR | ||||
| 88 | Steven Dunbar Jr. | WR | ||||
| 89 | Byron Simpson | WR | ||||
| 45 | Tyler McCloskey | TE | ||||
| 81 | Chris Johnson | TE | ||||
| 82 | Romello Brooker | TE | ||||
| 90 | Zach Vaughan | DE | ||||
| 91 | Nick Thurman | DE | ||||
| 94 | Cameron Malveaux | DE | ||||
| 52 | Jerard Carter | DT | ||||
| 93 | B.J. Singleton | DT | ||||
| 8 | Emeke Egbule | LB | ||||
| 9 | Matthew Adams | LB | ||||
| 12 | D'Juan Hines | LB | ||||
| 22 | Austin Robinson | LB | ||||
| 36 | Nomluis Fruge | LB | ||||
| 41 | Steven Taylor | LB | ||||
| 45 | Jordan Milburn | LB | ||||
| 45 | Cameron Doubenmier | LB | ||||
| 81 | Tyus Bowser | LB | ||||
| 6 | Howard Wilson | CB | ||||
| 13 | Joeal Williams | CB | ||||
| 14 | Isaiah Johnson | CB | ||||
| 24 | Jeremy Winchester | CB | ||||
| 26 | Brandon Wilson | CB | ||||
| 1 | Garrett Davis | S | ||||
| 2 | Khalil Williams | S | ||||
| 41 | Joel Scarbrough | PK | ||||
| 47 | Ty Cummings | PK | ||||
| 38 | Dane Roy | P | ||||
| 5 | Collin Wilder | |||||
| 7 | Marquez Stevenson | |||||
| 10 | Ed Oliver | DEF | ||||
| 23 | Terrell Williams | DEF | ||||
| Team | - |
Final ratings for 2016, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2016 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2016 power rankings →