The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @ 120Akron | W 10–0 | +1.7 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs Northern Iowa FCS | W 31–7 | -0.8 | — | MWN |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 7Utah | L 6–31 | -12.4 | — | CBSSN |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 86Colorado | L 20–37 | -17.4 | — | ESPN |
| 5 | — | Bye | ||||
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 64UNLVCONF | L 17–31 | -16.0 | — | CBSSN |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 122San José StateCONF | W 35–28 | -7.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 95Air ForceCONF | L 21–24 | -5.4 | — | CBSSN |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 123Colorado StateCONF | W 28–0 | +11.3 | — | CBSSN |
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 54San Diego StateCONF | L 7–24 | -11.8 | — | CBSSN |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 15 | @ 73Fresno StateCONF | L 3–24 | -19.0 | — | FS1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 121NevadaCONF | L 7–13 | -20.0 | — | MWN |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 77Hawai'iCONF | L 7–27 | -19.0 | — | Scripps Sports |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 38.5% | 114th | 38.3% | 22nd |
| Rushing success rate | 38.4% | 119th | 40.7% | 45th |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 103rd | 35.4% | 15th |
| Explosive run rate | 14.2% | 60th | 14.3% | 77th |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.8% | 99th | 7.4% | 14th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.86 | 109th | 3.13 | 90th |
| Opportunity rate | 36.4% | 99th | 37.8% | 66th |
| Stuff rate | 20.5% | 117th | 15.3% | 100th |
| Sack rate | 3.6% | 23rd | 3.6% | 124th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 35.7% | 112th | 35.8% | 29th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 36.4% | 135th | 55.2% | 54th |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 108th | 11.6% | 75th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 16.0 | 132nd | 23.2 | 45th |
| Yards / game | 314.7 | 122nd | 344.3 | 45th |
| Yards / play | 4.76 | 123rd | 5.12 | 44th |
| Pass yards / game | 183.0 | 113th | 164.4 | 18th |
| Yards / pass att. | 5.70 | 131st | 6.09 | 17th |
| Completion % | 55.8% | 124th | 55.5% | 14th |
| Rush yards / game | 131.7 | 99th | 168.8 | 95th |
| Yards / carry | 4.05 | 91st | 4.57 | 92nd |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 33.7% | 118th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.50 | 95th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.58 | 38th | 1.50 | 113th |
| Penalty yards / game | 56.3 | 82nd | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →