The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | @ 18Penn State | L 11–46 | -14.9 | — | CBS |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs Sacramento State FCS | W 20–17 | -21.8 | — | MWN |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 133Middle Tennessee | L 13–14 | -18.5 | — | MWN |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 78Western Kentucky | L 16–31 | -14.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | — | Bye | ||||
| 6 | Oct 4 | @ 73Fresno StateCONF | L 17–20 | -1.0 | — | CBSSN |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 54San Diego StateCONF | L 10–44 | -27.9 | — | CBSSN |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 74New MexicoCONF | L 22–24 | -0.3 | — | FS1 |
| 9 | Oct 24 | vs 46Boise StateCONF | L 3–24 | -20.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 8 | @ 79Utah StateCONF | L 14–51 | -28.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 122San José StateCONF | W 55–10 | +17.3 | — | CBSSN |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 114WyomingCONF | W 13–7 | 0.0 | — | MWN |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 64UNLVCONF | L 17–42 | -26.4 | — | CBSSN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 36.5% | 124th | 43.9% | 89th |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8% | 128th | 44.7% | 82nd |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 116th | 43.2% | 98th |
| Explosive run rate | 16.6% | 24th | 15.2% | 96th |
| Explosive pass rate | 6.5% | 132nd | 10.1% | 72nd |
| Line yards / carry | 2.94 | 94th | 3.21 | 103rd |
| Opportunity rate | 37.1% | 88th | 41.0% | 110th |
| Stuff rate | 18.4% | 88th | 14.0% | 118th |
| Sack rate | 3.9% | 31st | 4.7% | 103rd |
| 3rd-down conversion | 34.4% | 119th | 40.8% | 67th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 34.8% | 136th | 55.8% | 62nd |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 93rd | 10.2% | 107th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 17.6 | 129th | 27.5 | 79th |
| Yards / game | 302.2 | 127th | 369.8 | 63rd |
| Yards / play | 4.88 | 115th | 5.51 | 82nd |
| Pass yards / game | 148.7 | 127th | 209.8 | 70th |
| Yards / pass att. | 5.83 | 129th | 7.42 | 88th |
| Completion % | 59.1% | 97th | 64.9% | 110th |
| Rush yards / game | 153.5 | 74th | 149.6 | 70th |
| Yards / carry | 4.40 | 65th | 4.17 | 67th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 31.6% | 129th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 2.25 | 134th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.50 | 34th | 1.58 | 108th |
| Penalty yards / game | 45.1 | 29th | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →