
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | @ 35UCLA | L 13–27 | -6.6 | — | ESPN |
| 2 | Sep 9 | vs 69Jacksonville State | W 30–16 | +10.7 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 16 | vs Duquesne FCS | W 66–7 | +13.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 21 | vs 85Georgia StateCONF | L 17–30 | -19.2 | — | ESPN |
| 5 | Sep 30 | @ 90Georgia SouthernCONF | L 28–38 | -11.8 | — | NFL Net |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 10 | @ 54Appalachian StateCONF | W 27–24 | +8.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | Oct 21 | @ 88Arkansas StateCONF | W 27–17 | +8.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 28 | vs 99MarshallCONF | W 34–6 | +17.6 | — | NFL Net |
| 10 | Nov 4 | @ 94Old DominionCONF | W 28–24 | +1.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 11 | Nov 11 | vs 72Texas StateCONF | W 31–23 | +4.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 18 | @ 89Army | L 21–28 | -8.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 13 | Nov 25 | vs 22James MadisonCONF | L 14–56 | -25.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| Bowls | Dec 23 | vs 59San José StateNEUTRAL | W 24–14 | +11.1 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 42.5% | 65th | 44.2% | 92nd |
| Rushing success rate | 41.4% | 94th | 47.7% | 111th |
| Passing success rate | 43.5% | 46th | 40.6% | 58th |
| Explosive run rate | 13.6% | 83rd | 17.2% | 112th |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.5% | 41st | 9.5% | 44th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.93 | 106th | 3.46 | 119th |
| Opportunity rate | 37.9% | 66th | 42.7% | 118th |
| Stuff rate | 20.7% | 124th | 13.1% | 112th |
| Sack rate | 3.8% | 25th | 4.8% | 101st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.1% | 27th | 43.4% | 103rd |
| Red-zone TD rate | 46.9% | 127th | 58.1% | 46th |
| Havoc rate | 8.3% | 70th | 8.0% | 79th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 27.7 | 64th | 23.9 | 50th |
| Yards / game | 416.2 | 41st | 379.5 | 66th |
| Yards / play | 6.07 | 36th | 5.65 | 82nd |
| Pass yards / game | 261.6 | 39th | 201.8 | 54th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.29 | 24th | 7.04 | 52nd |
| Completion % | 66.6% | 20th | 57.0% | 26th |
| Rush yards / game | 154.6 | 70th | 167.8 | 100th |
| Yards / carry | 4.32 | 66th | 4.72 | 106th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 44.2% | 27th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.31 | 50th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.31 | 25th | 1.62 | 111th |
| Penalty yards / game | 57.6 | 94th | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2023 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2023, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2023 power rankings →