
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | @ 73Fresno State | L 14–42 | -23.4 | — | FS1 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 13USC | L 20–59 | -14.7 | — | FS1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 92Jacksonville State | W 41–34 | -0.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs Maine FCS | W 45–17 | +0.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 19James MadisonCONF | L 10–35 | -11.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 9 | vs 102Southern MissCONF | L 35–38 | -12.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 131Georgia StateCONF | W 41–24 | +0.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 105Arkansas StateCONF | L 24–34 | -13.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 6 | @ 115App StateCONF | W 25–23 | -4.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 111Coastal CarolinaCONF | W 45–40 | -6.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 32Old DominionCONF | L 10–45 | -24.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 81MarshallCONF | W 24–19 | +5.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 29 | vs 115App StateNEUTRAL | W 29–10 | +10.1 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 45.5% | 39th | 49.5% | 133rd |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7% | 44th | 52.0% | 134th |
| Passing success rate | 44.4% | 37th | 46.9% | 127th |
| Explosive run rate | 13.3% | 79th | 21.2% | 136th |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.2% | 42nd | 9.4% | 55th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.27 | 28th | 3.58 | 136th |
| Opportunity rate | 41.1% | 39th | 46.6% | 135th |
| Stuff rate | 15.8% | 45th | 14.3% | 112th |
| Sack rate | 6.7% | 101st | 2.6% | 134th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 47.5% | 19th | 47.3% | 125th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 56.5% | 76th | 52.8% | 44th |
| Havoc rate | 10.7% | 49th | 10.2% | 107th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 27.9 | 72nd | 32.3 | 111th |
| Yards / game | 401.5 | 54th | 458.5 | 134th |
| Yards / play | 5.64 | 54th | 6.43 | 133rd |
| Pass yards / game | 247.4 | 47th | 234.5 | 116th |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.44 | 57th | 7.53 | 96th |
| Completion % | 63.0% | 58th | 63.6% | 92nd |
| Rush yards / game | 154.2 | 73rd | 218.1 | 133rd |
| Yards / carry | 4.33 | 70th | 5.67 | 135th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 44.7% | 30th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.00 | 25th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.31 | 100th | 0.92 | 134th |
| Penalty yards / game | 50.2 | 56th | — | — |
69 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →