
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @ 76UCF | L 10–17 | -5.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 101LibertyCONF | W 34–24 | +1.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 98Georgia Southern | L 34–41 | -10.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs Murray State FCS | W 45–10 | +3.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 102Southern Miss | L 25–42 | -20.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 9 | @ 134Sam HoustonCONF | W 29–27 | -12.4 | — | CBSSN |
| 8 | Oct 15 | vs 112DelawareCONF | W 38–25 | +1.5 | — | ESPN |
| 9 | — | Bye | ||||
| 10 | Oct 29 | @ 133Middle TennesseeCONF | W 24–21 | -8.9 | — | ESPN2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | @ 128UTEPCONF | W 30–27 | -7.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 88Kennesaw StateCONF | W 35–26 | +2.6 | — | ESPNU |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 104Florida InternationalCONF | L 21–27 | -9.7 | — | CBSSN |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 78Western KentuckyCONF | W 37–34 | -2.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 15 | Dec 5 | vs 88Kennesaw State | L 15–19 | -10.4 | — | CBSSN |
| Bowls | Dec 16 | vs 90TroyNEUTRAL | W 17–13 | 0.0 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 44.1% | 53rd | 42.4% | 71st |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1% | 38th | 43.2% | 68th |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 98th | 41.6% | 72nd |
| Explosive run rate | 17.5% | 14th | 14.5% | 79th |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.9% | 73rd | 10.1% | 72nd |
| Line yards / carry | 3.19 | 44th | 2.91 | 40th |
| Opportunity rate | 43.1% | 12th | 38.0% | 67th |
| Stuff rate | 17.0% | 67th | 18.8% | 42nd |
| Sack rate | 5.7% | 84th | 4.8% | 99th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.8% | 83rd | 39.7% | 56th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 58.5% | 69th | 60.0% | 87th |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 58th | 13.2% | 32nd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 28.1 | 70th | 27.6 | 81st |
| Yards / game | 408.7 | 41st | 378.8 | 74th |
| Yards / play | 5.71 | 47th | 5.41 | 69th |
| Pass yards / game | 162.0 | 122nd | 221.4 | 99th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.92 | 84th | 7.36 | 83rd |
| Completion % | 59.5% | 93rd | 61.2% | 61st |
| Rush yards / game | 246.7 | 5th | 144.3 | 63rd |
| Yards / carry | 5.31 | 15th | 3.99 | 55th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.9% | 78th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.00 | 25th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.71 | 56th | 2.00 | 69th |
| Penalty yards / game | 56.3 | 84th | — | — |
69 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →