The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs Nicholls FCS | W 38–20 | -6.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 36Clemson | L 16–27 | -2.7 | — | ACC Network |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 48Memphis | L 7–28 | -20.3 | — | ESPNU |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 109Buffalo | W 21–17 | -0.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | — | Bye | ||||
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 107South AlabamaCONF | W 31–24 | -2.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 62Texas StateCONF | W 48–41 | +11.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 130UL MonroeCONF | W 37–14 | +12.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 103LouisianaCONF | W 35–23 | +2.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | Nov 1 | vs 105Arkansas StateCONF | L 10–23 | -22.4 | — | ESPNU |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 13 | @ 32Old DominionCONF | L 0–33 | -18.3 | — | ESPN |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 131Georgia StateCONF | W 31–19 | -4.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 102Southern MissCONF | W 28–18 | +6.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 15 | Dec 5 | @ 19James Madison | L 14–31 | -4.0 | — | ESPN |
| Bowls | Dec 16 | vs 92Jacksonville StateNEUTRAL | L 13–17 | -8.4 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 38.3% | 117th | 40.4% | 45th |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 115th | 41.9% | 55th |
| Passing success rate | 37.6% | 105th | 38.6% | 42nd |
| Explosive run rate | 10.2% | 123rd | 13.3% | 61st |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.5% | 84th | 11.5% | 108th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.88 | 106th | 3.11 | 88th |
| Opportunity rate | 33.9% | 125th | 36.4% | 46th |
| Stuff rate | 21.8% | 126th | 18.0% | 57th |
| Sack rate | 11.6% | 135th | 7.7% | 11th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.0% | 81st | 40.4% | 64th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 54.1% | 87th | 47.5% | 26th |
| Havoc rate | 16.4% | 133rd | 12.1% | 62nd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 23.5 | 102nd | 23.9 | 54th |
| Yards / game | 307.2 | 123rd | 373.0 | 66th |
| Yards / play | 4.37 | 133rd | 5.37 | 65th |
| Pass yards / game | 209.2 | 90th | 180.3 | 30th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.75 | 93rd | 7.04 | 62nd |
| Completion % | 57.8% | 112th | 60.3% | 44th |
| Rush yards / game | 98.0 | 130th | 176.8 | 104th |
| Yards / carry | 2.79 | 132nd | 4.54 | 91st |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.8% | 79th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.29 | 72nd | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 4.21 | 136th | 2.64 | 22nd |
| Penalty yards / game | 52.1 | 61st | — | — |
65 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →