The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs UAlbany FCS | W 34–7 | +0.2 | — | FS1 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 35Iowa State | L 13–16 | +5.4 | — | FOX |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 136Massachusetts | W 47–7 | +2.9 | — | BTN |
| 4 | Sep 19 | @ 65RutgersCONF | W 38–28 | +13.2 | — | FOX |
| 5 | Sep 27 | vs 1IndianaCONF | L 15–20 | +15.6 | — | Peacock |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 72WisconsinCONF | W 37–0 | +30.8 | — | FS1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 18Penn StateCONF | W 25–24 | +8.4 | — | Peacock |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 63MinnesotaCONF | W 41–3 | +27.0 | — | CBS |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 5OregonCONF | L 16–18 | +12.9 | — | CBS |
| 12 | Nov 15 | @ 13USCCONF | L 21–26 | +9.6 | — | BTN |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 83Michigan StateCONF | W 20–17 | -2.3 | — | FS1 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | @ 61NebraskaCONF | W 40–16 | +28.4 | — | CBS |
| Bowls | Dec 31 | vs 11VanderbiltNEUTRAL | W 34–27 | +19.1 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 45.2% | 43rd | 39.1% | 27th |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9% | 19th | 41.6% | 53rd |
| Passing success rate | 39.5% | 90th | 36.9% | 25th |
| Explosive run rate | 12.9% | 90th | 10.5% | 17th |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.9% | 49th | 9.2% | 50th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.35 | 21st | 3.09 | 77th |
| Opportunity rate | 41.5% | 30th | 38.4% | 76th |
| Stuff rate | 13.6% | 17th | 16.8% | 76th |
| Sack rate | 5.5% | 74th | 6.3% | 41st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 44.2% | 40th | 34.5% | 20th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 70.5% | 19th | 58.1% | 71st |
| Havoc rate | 8.4% | 6th | 11.3% | 81st |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 31.8 | 39th | 18.1 | 10th |
| Yards / game | 320.1 | 119th | 280.4 | 9th |
| Yards / play | 5.15 | 98th | 4.53 | 13th |
| Pass yards / game | 143.2 | 129th | 158.5 | 15th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.51 | 106th | 6.04 | 14th |
| Completion % | 62.9% | 59th | 57.8% | 24th |
| Rush yards / game | 176.9 | 42nd | 107.7 | 17th |
| Yards / carry | 4.56 | 50th | 3.45 | 22nd |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 43.5% | 35th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.00 | 25th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.38 | 24th | 2.00 | 69th |
| Penalty yards / game | 30.1 | 3rd | — | — |
65 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →