
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | @ 41Tulane | L 3–23 | -12.6 | — | ESPNU |
| 2 | Sep 5 | vs Western Illinois FCS | W 42–7 | +3.0 | — | BTN |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 5OregonCONF | L 14–34 | -5.1 | — | FOX |
| 4 | — | Bye | ||||
| 5 | Sep 27 | vs 89UCLACONF | W 17–14 | -3.6 | — | BTN |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 130UL Monroe | W 42–7 | +11.5 | — | BTN |
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 18Penn StateCONF | W 22–21 | +14.0 | — | FS1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 100PurdueCONF | W 19–0 | +10.2 | — | BTN |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 61NebraskaCONF | L 21–28 | -2.6 | — | FS1 |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 7 | @ 13USCCONF | L 17–38 | -6.4 | — | FOX |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 26MichiganCONF | L 22–24 | +3.1 | — | FOX |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 63MinnesotaCONF | W 38–35 | +1.1 | — | BTN |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 27IllinoisCONF | L 13–20 | +3.3 | — | FOX |
| Bowls | Dec 26 | vs 96Central MichiganNEUTRAL | W 34–7 | +19.3 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 43.4% | 59th | 45.5% | 112th |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3% | 46th | 47.4% | 115th |
| Passing success rate | 40.2% | 83rd | 43.4% | 104th |
| Explosive run rate | 11.8% | 114th | 12.9% | 54th |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.1% | 112th | 10.3% | 79th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.13 | 53rd | 3.24 | 110th |
| Opportunity rate | 40.3% | 46th | 40.2% | 100th |
| Stuff rate | 15.7% | 44th | 13.8% | 119th |
| Sack rate | 4.4% | 49th | 5.3% | 80th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.5% | 27th | 44.9% | 110th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 42.2% | 124th | 54.1% | 48th |
| Havoc rate | 13.0% | 103rd | 10.5% | 104th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 23.4 | 104th | 19.9 | 21st |
| Yards / game | 346.1 | 98th | 329.9 | 31st |
| Yards / play | 5.31 | 83rd | 5.48 | 78th |
| Pass yards / game | 185.9 | 108th | 182.1 | 34th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.39 | 111th | 7.25 | 78th |
| Completion % | 59.3% | 95th | 64.3% | 104th |
| Rush yards / game | 160.2 | 65th | 136.3 | 48th |
| Yards / carry | 4.61 | 45th | 4.30 | 78th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 42.9% | 37th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.62 | 107th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.31 | 21st | 1.77 | 93rd |
| Penalty yards / game | 33.9 | 8th | — | — |
63 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →