
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | @ 62Texas State | L 27–52 | -20.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs Long Island University FCS | L 23–28 | -29.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 66Kentucky | L 23–48 | -21.0 | — | ESPNU |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 103Louisiana | W 34–31 | -6.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 96Central MichiganCONF | L 13–24 | -13.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | Oct 4 | @ 109BuffaloCONF | L 30–31 | -5.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 119Northern IllinoisCONF | W 16–10 | -7.7 | — | ESPN+ |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 85Miami (OH)CONF | L 30–44 | -14.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 68OhioCONF | L 21–28 | -9.8 | — | CBSSN |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 113Bowling GreenCONF | W 27–21 | -5.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 15 | @ 132Ball StateCONF | W 24–9 | +3.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 13 | — | Bye | ||||
| 14 | Nov 25 | vs 67Western MichiganCONF | L 21–31 | -12.5 | — | ESPN2 |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 42.3% | 76th | 44.2% | 97th |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 53rd | 44.9% | 84th |
| Passing success rate | 39.3% | 94th | 43.0% | 93rd |
| Explosive run rate | 16.2% | 31st | 15.3% | 101st |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.1% | 66th | 10.8% | 92nd |
| Line yards / carry | 3.21 | 38th | 3.26 | 111th |
| Opportunity rate | 40.0% | 51st | 39.5% | 91st |
| Stuff rate | 17.1% | 68th | 15.3% | 100th |
| Sack rate | 2.7% | 6th | 4.0% | 117th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41.6% | 61st | 45.9% | 114th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 58.6% | 68th | 63.8% | 108th |
| Havoc rate | 9.1% | 17th | 9.0% | 126th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 24.1 | 98th | 32.4 | 112th |
| Yards / game | 377.3 | 78th | 416.3 | 113th |
| Yards / play | 5.62 | 60th | 6.13 | 123rd |
| Pass yards / game | 234.8 | 61st | 175.5 | 29th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.97 | 80th | 7.49 | 91st |
| Completion % | 61.1% | 79th | 60.3% | 48th |
| Rush yards / game | 142.5 | 82nd | 232.1 | 136th |
| Yards / carry | 4.38 | 67th | 5.51 | 134th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 41.0% | 54th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.17 | 56th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 0.92 | 7th | 1.25 | 124th |
| Penalty yards / game | 48.8 | 48th | — | — |
63 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →