The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | @ 5Texas | L 10–37 | -5.7 | — | FOX |
| 2 | Sep 9 | vs 87Houston | W 43–41 | -4.4 | — | NFL Net |
| 3 | Sep 16 | vs Texas Southern FCS | W 59–7 | +10.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 23 | @ 96South FloridaCONF | L 29–42 | -15.7 | — | ESPNU |
| 5 | Sep 30 | vs 105East CarolinaCONF | W 24–17 | -1.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | Oct 7 | vs 118UConn | L 31–38 | -19.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | — | Bye | ||||
| 8 | Oct 19 | @ 110TulsaCONF | W 42–10 | +21.2 | — | ESPN2 |
| 9 | Oct 28 | vs 45TulaneCONF | L 28–30 | -1.2 | — | ESPN2 |
| 10 | Nov 4 | vs 18SMUCONF | L 31–36 | +1.4 | — | ESPNU |
| 11 | Nov 11 | @ 42UTSACONF | L 14–34 | -13.5 | — | ESPNU |
| 12 | Nov 18 | @ 125CharlotteCONF | W 28–7 | +11.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 13 | Nov 25 | vs 97Florida AtlanticCONF | W 24–21 | -4.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 26 | vs 72Texas StateNEUTRAL | L 21–45 | -25.4 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 43.8% | 55th | 42.0% | 63rd |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5% | 71st | 45.2% | 85th |
| Passing success rate | 44.1% | 39th | 38.6% | 35th |
| Explosive run rate | 12.0% | 106th | 14.9% | 71st |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.6% | 27th | 10.0% | 57th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.05 | 84th | 3.15 | 69th |
| Opportunity rate | 35.6% | 103rd | 35.1% | 28th |
| Stuff rate | 16.4% | 67th | 14.1% | 98th |
| Sack rate | 5.7% | 68th | 6.2% | 61st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.3% | 65th | 38.2% | 48th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 71.4% | 20th | 63.4% | 82nd |
| Havoc rate | 8.1% | 66th | 6.6% | 101st |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 29.5 | 57th | 28.2 | 82nd |
| Yards / game | 362.9 | 84th | 364.7 | 54th |
| Yards / play | 5.57 | 65th | 5.36 | 63rd |
| Pass yards / game | 252.5 | 45th | 199.2 | 47th |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.62 | 52nd | 7.28 | 73rd |
| Completion % | 62.2% | 58th | 58.2% | 31st |
| Rush yards / game | 110.5 | 115th | 153.1 | 73rd |
| Yards / carry | 3.71 | 105th | 4.11 | 62nd |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.0% | 75th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.92 | 125th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.23 | 82nd | 1.77 | 97th |
| Penalty yards / game | 48.3 | 55th | — | — |
64 players who recorded a stat in 2023 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2023, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2023 power rankings →